I argue that the US presence in the Americas is significant and primed to grow further
I started tracking this after seeing that the Donald Trump administration revoked Chevron’s US Treasury license to operate in Venezuela. It didn’t seem that someone who was so vocal about drilling and oil would do such a thing without more to the story (then again, Trump is extremely bipolar).
In a message published on social media, Trump announced the reversal of the November 2022 “oil transaction agreement,” in reference to General License 41 (GL41) issued by the Joe Biden White House that allowed Chevron to restart its activities in the South American nation.
The US energy giant holds minority stakes in four joint projects with Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA. The ventures currently produce around 200,000 barrels per day (bpd), between 20 and 25 percent of the country’s total output.
Economist Asdrúbal Oliveros estimated that the cancellation of GL41 would deprive the country of US $4 billion in revenue in 2026, which would have a significant impact on the foreign currency supply and potentially trigger inflation within.
Seems like a good tactic to do before you’re planning on something.
May 26th
The Trump administration considers President Daniel Noboa an "incorruptible" leader. According to Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who emphasized that Noboa's "unwavering character" positions him as a key regional figure and a U.S. ally.
- President Trump is levying a 25% tariff on all goods from any country that imports Venezuelan oil, whether directly from Venezuela or indirectly through third parties.
- The tariffs will lapse one year after a country ceases importing Venezuelan oil—or sooner if officials deem it appropriate.
- If tariffs are imposed on China, they will also apply to Hong Kong and Macau to prevent transshipment and evasion.
- These tariffs aim to sever the financial lifelines of Nicolás Maduro’s corrupt regime and curb its destabilizing influence across the Western Hemisphere.
- This action targets transnational criminal threats, such as the Tren de Aragua gang, and addresses the humanitarian crises fueled by Venezuela’s actions.
News
The Trump administration is doubling to $50 million a reward for the arrest of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro, accusing him of being one of the world’s largest narco-traffickers and working with cartels to flood the U.S. with fentanyl-laced cocaine.
Trump has since raised it to $100M
August 26th
The Russian milblog channel Rybar is suggesting that Russia deliver “Shahed-131/136” One-Way Attack Drones to Venezuela to “deter” any future military action from the United States.
Trump recently bragged about blowing a boat, allegedly carrying contraband, out of the water coming off of the coat of Venezuela. It’s not clear exactly who they were nor their operation but what was clear to me is these people were made into an example of for others. “Look what we did to these gangsters, imagine what we will do to you”.
Apparently there were 11 onboard, which suggests they were not moving contraband–and evidently, it was a legal action taken, somewhere, somehow.
Proxies on Proxies
Ecuador has designated the Cartel of the Suns, led by Nicolás Maduro and Diosdado Cabello, as an international terrorist organization
Ecuador has been extremely violent over the last 2 years…it has completely been regarded as a Narco state. It’s possible that it could be utilized by USA interests in the North of the continent.
US Navy shows up… and a response
Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López cautioned the US against any intervention in Venezuela, asserting that the FANB’s stance reflects the will of the Venezuelan people. He warned that any aggression would be firmly opposed and considered an affront to all of Latin America and the Caribbean.
Thesis
The On The Ball thesis on this matter is that the Trump administration is actively focusing asserting itself as a regional power as opposed to a global hegemony. The world is changing and power/wealth has shifted tremendously over the last 20 years. The media has long covered USA interests in Venezuela in particular (as noted above) but this is simply because it’s the toughest nut to crack with their oil and Chinese & Russian intel. So what suggests they want more than Venezuela to align with them?
Against the Middle East
- The Strength and ability for the Global South + Eastern countries to operate independently outside of the USA Eurodollar system; may be an agreement that their territory is captured, but the USA now has a constrained influence.
- Weakened positioning throughout of Africa (except for the Horn of Africa)
- A general consensus amongst the US population that the wars in the Middle East were a waste of time, money and lives
- A plan to wheel the dollars into the US economy; not spread them amongst oil producing nations
FOR Western Hemisphere - Securing Hemisphere
- Spending; Securing dollar hegemony with major economies (Brazil, Mexico, Colombia)
- Less demanding militarily as most can be completed through economic warfare
- Weaken Chinese exports in the meantime.
Process of Elimination
Let’s go over the West
Colombia: Via sanctions, control over cocaine markets, oil and precious metals and consistent export to United States, this is locked. Petro is an embarrassment.
Mexico: I have written a fair bit of Mexico but these three articles below sum up a lot:
Honduras: via agricultural corporations they de facto control the Honduran economy
Nicaragua: Run by a communist who continues to amaze by how dystopian and backward he has run the Nicaraguan economy and people down… he has done an amazing job to squash dissent and opposition. His son is likely going to continue his reign who seems to be far more business friendly than his father, particular with the BRICS countries. Nicaragua is not a military might, but they have an immensity of resources, canal potential, amazing prices for constructing and they connect the continents, it’s a problem for the USA for connecting continents.
Venezuela upped aid to Nicaragua last year by 15 percent to $511 million, more than making up for diminishing aid flow from other countries, according to a report released Wednesday from Nicaragua’s Central Bank. Since President Daniel Ortega returned to power in 2007, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez has provided his comrade with $1.6 billion in total aid, according to a Monitor tally of Central Bank figures. That growing pool of petro-dollars has supported Mr. Ortega’s political programs and perhaps even saved his nation’s fledgling economy from collapse–Article from 2011 in Christian Science Monitor
El Salvador: practically speaking, El Salvador is a weak country with little bargaining power in its favour. Trump is already deporting people to El Salvador after the “Operation arrest 7% of the country” was a success.
Argentina: This place is completely being sold out by Milei to Zionist interests inside and outside the United States. Argentina is already wishing to dollarize…likely after a yet-again another IMF or perhaps Wall Street bailout with the US ea. Argentina is a major ally in the Americas (wanting to join NATO, wtf?).
https://www.unz.com/topic/javier-milei/2025 <—Great articles here.
Panama: Trump has been very vocal about his oversight over the canal, so much so, Panama has bent. Following Secretary of State Rubio’s meeting with the Panamanian officials, Panama‘s president announced that it will not be renewing its “Memorandum of Understanding” with China.
Chile: is likely going to elect a true conservative or a libertarian that will be sympathetic to the business interests in the United States and the assistance to remove the gang influence in the country over the last number of the years (both sides of the political aisle in Chile agree that criminality is a top concern). Chile is likely neutral, but not a “challenge” to US interests. If anything, the US will get their eyes in there to deal with the criminal problem.
Uruguay: Uruguay is likely too small, too inconsequential for the US to fully enforce matters against it. In fact, I came across a very interesting report the other day showing that the percentage of Uruguay’s economy relative to the rest of South America was the exact same in 1960 as it is today (1.9% I believe).
Brazil: Brazil is already in the bag with the Supreme Court controlled by US interests such as the State Department. They’ll continue to play communism, hand minerals and resources to the USA as needed and thats it. They’ll be likely more neutral, but not antagonistic like Venezuela.
I have a good source to say that there is major bidding right now by private militaries on who is going to take out Maduro; People are already on the ground in the country gathering intel
Peru and Bolivia: Both are likely to resist USA interests but the reality is they cannot hold themselves together from year to year and therefore have no justifiable way to turn away dollars and treasuries.
Suriname & Guyana: Each of these countries are simply not sovereign enough with low populations to face any sort of resistance to the United States–plus its worth considering what the USA would want here other than the oil and gold. Right now, they can have it through a number of various companies operating in country.
Therefore,
Nicaragua, Venezuela remain in opposition while Chile, Guyanas & Uruguay are neutral actors
Further Evidence
USA has shown considerable interest in cozying up to Argentina by offering them direct dollar support as needed, by buying sold assets, by engaging their domestic surveillance technology applied there and speaking nice of Milei, the clown. The same is true for Panama, with the recent law changes and a change of heart has occurred with El Salvador; a 180 degree turn from the Biden Administration. In fact it would appear that El Salvador’s tactic of locking up nearly everybody and then trimming away who in fact was guilty is already being adopted by some three-letter agencies in the United States. Trump talks of reopening mental institutions and DoD has signed huge contracts with the private prison companies CoreCivic and Geo Group for the purpose of housing, processing, analyzing and distributing criminals and illegals.
I have a suspicion that future moves will be made in Ecuador; there is simply far too much violence in the country for various proxy actors to not take advantage. It would be a major disturbance to China as well who are reliant on Ecuador for visas–and they have a relatively business friendly President now. Chile is another country to watch for establishing tighter ties.
What we may be looking at is the world bifurcating a long a couple different lines whereby the United States aims to hold complete hegemony over the Americas.
Closing
While we can see that overtly the United States showing an interest in Venezuela such as years and years of declaring the rightful leader as Maduro’s opposition and actively working on ways to take Maduro out (a thing that almost all Venezuelans would welcome), I believe that this is attempting to take out a King, but the Kingdom is in fact all of the Americas.
If Venezuela falls, Nicaragua is increasingly isolated and will likely be forced to open up their doors to the flow of US capital. Other countries with relatively few dollars and English-speaking commerce may be yet to pour into the otherwise backward countries of Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador and especially Argentina (who are still partying on the likelihood of a dollar bailout).
Ruling this Kingdom makes sense when we look at the USA relative to other powers in the world such as the rising East and rising Global South. Perhaps the world is no longer the American oyster, but the next best thing is the hotbed of resources and possibilities that remain untapped in Central and South America. How's the world's largest oil deposit for a start?
