Critical Mineral, Unappreciated Assets & Government Support
Guardian Metal Resources PLC is a metals exploration Company which is focused exclusively within the mining friendly jurisdiction of Nevada. The Company is the parent company of Golden Metals Resources LLC, as well as Pilot Metals Inc. and BFM Resources Inc., all of which are U.S. based, set up for the purpose of holding mineral claims in the state of Nevada. Its project include Pilot Mountain Project, Kibby Basin Project, Golconda Summit Project, Garfield Project and Stonewall Project.
The main focus on how the company has been on some people’s radars is due to a rare circumstance of government intervention. A tungsten supply crisis is unfolding due to China’s dominance in global tungsten production and its recent imposition of export controls. The USA has expressed interest in having their own supply of homegrown tungsten, in an era where the US needs to be independent in the production of critical resources.
Tungsten
Tungsten is a rare metal, similar to steel in appearance. Because tungsten has the advantages of high melting point, high hardness, excellent corrosion resistance, good electrical and thermal conductivity.
- Key defense metal for munitions, armour, high-temperature applications, counterweights in aerospace
- Cutting tools
- Quantum computing via semiconductor chip technology
- Electrical components & bulb filaments
- Nuclear fusion reactors
Tungsten has been highlighted by the EU, Canada and the USA as a strategic mineral.
After 2011 time, when reliance on China was really picking up steam following the series of bailouts in the financial system, the slumping price of Tungsten caused destruction for explorers AND producers (with two major Western producers going under). The explorers disappeared or changed exploration focus to other metals.
Major demand however is coming from defence industry (as per the CEO of Guardian)
Why this is key RIGHT NOW
China produces 86% of the world’s Tungsten and since February (2025) they have banned exports, causing a real supply constraint of this mineral. Furthermore, approximately 90% of the Tungsten used in the United States comes from China.
At the time of writing, there is NO USA domestic production of Tungsten anywhere in the country. In fact, the US has not produced tungsten since 2015 (and even then it was only small amounts)–and since it’s required for many serious military applications, there has been a considerable amount of focus on revamping the tungsten industry. Thus far, Guardian Resources has received 6.2M USD to accelerate drilling and formation of a pre-feasibility study of their deposit holdings.
Example:
“”In the coming days, you will see a huge, record-breaking flow of weapons and ammunition to help Ukraine defend itself. America will begin purchasing a massive amount of weapons for Europe, which will be transferred to Ukraine. Keep an eye on the news about frozen Russian assets—Putin hoped that we and Europe would get tired, and that is exactly where he made a fatal mistake.” — Republican Senator Lindsey Graham.
And how exactly…?
Tungsten is a key part of this.
Trends
This is following in the same foot steps as antimony (look at UAMY’s performance, look at Perpetua’s recent contract with the United States) with prices of metal going 5X from here.
Data is currently being submitted as a process to file for a PFS; (pre-feasibility study). A potential catalyst for the market.
Stock Numbers
Market Cap (GBP) 84.303M
Total assets: US $15.48M
Net assets: US $14.64M (Current value).
Cash holding= 3M
In their latest report they show Total liabilities of 826,000 USD (all of which are current liabilities). Total Equity of 11.23M.
Special Situation Box Checking
- Main assets are located in perhaps the most mining friendly state of Nevada
- Critical Metal classification from Government.
- Resilience (one-way bet on Tungsten?): Their largest deposit focus is on Tungsten but they hold other assets for resilience in markets
- Demonstrated Government support: Already secured funding for PFS from DoD + Executive orders from Trump are supportive.
- Limited domestic supply (zero production)
- No substitute can work for its use cases given its high density and high melting point property.
Pilot Mountain Flagship:
Project located 200km SE of Reno which hosts a Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) of 12.53Mt at 0.27% W03 with significant Cu-Ag-Zn findings.
Project derisked which includes owned water rights, completion of advanced metallurgical work as well as environmental baseline studies which showed no impediments to development. Outside the main resource at Desert Scheelite there is a large, highly-prospective footprint yet to be added to the mineral inventory with drilling now underway at Garnet and then Gunmetal to support resource expansion. Desert Scheelite resource model shows further expansion potential down dip and along strike.
Drill results are pending results in the near future.
What’s better than a Tungsten deposit now? Two
Tempiute tungsten project formerly known as the Emerson Tungsten Mine, is located in south-central Nevada less than 250 miles southeast of the Company’s Pilot Mountain tungsten project.
Tempiute-historically is one of the top tungsten-producing mines in the United States-Guardian Metal identified multiple zones of exposed tungsten mineralisation adjacent to the Company’s existing Tempiute land holding. “Guardian Metal has now completed the acquisition of these mineralised zones via a direct purchase agreement covering 18 Bureau of Land Management (“BLM”) unpatented Lode Mining Claims, one BLM Placer Claim, and three BLM Mill Site Claims“
The scale and intensity of mineralization at Tempiute is impressive- over one and a half miles along strike and nearly a ¼ mile vertically. Grades mined at Tempitue were also impressive at 0.4% W03.
Further Properties/Insurance
Their most advanced project so far with drilling permits ready. This too is on hold but interestingly their property intersects properties that have not only found gold, but produce it. North of them along the Getchel Trend there’s a collection of gold mines with a resource of 13M gold ounces; to the Southeast of them there is the Battle Mountain-Eureka Trend where Newmont has produced 4.2M ounces in one area and deposit of 5M ounces sits as well.
Rock sampling by previous operators returned anomalous gold-silver values (up to 1.17g/t Au and 161g/t Ag). Interestingly, the previous operators never went deeper than 12m. Everything is on hold here.
Property was staked to cover a gossan in 2015 with initial rock sampling results up to 6% Cu, 3.5g/t Au and 124g/t Ag. 3D inversion modelling is now getting a sense of the system they have while they wait for drilling permits. Other finds are 61 g/t gold from Freeze Zone, and 47 g/t from Pamlico zone. Such grades are exceptional and point to both precious- and base-metal potential
The Basin is located less than 60km north of the prolific Clayton Valley Basin which hosts the Silver Peak Lithium Mine, owned and operated by Albemarle Corp. Significant Lithium deposits were made only 250m away from their property in 2022–though no exploration has taken place on their land yet.
Market is overlooking their real asset (Gross in-situ metals)
Despite having no thorough public research study done just yet or a preliminary economic assessment to rely upon accurately) we have to speculate on their property’s economically viable inferred resources. However, given recent and historical findings and conservative estimations, I believe they are not appreciated in the net asset value to date. If we try to get a sense of those resources per in-ground metal and compare that to the market cap, we find that the company’s potential is interesting.
Assuming the upside of Tungsten prices doesn’t even take place. Their Mineral Resource Estimate sits for Pilot Mountain is 34,290 tonnes of Tungsten (10,000 is inferred).
Per tonne on tungsten, the going price is 38,797.13. Let’s assume that only 25% of that price is realized due to mining costs. 38,797.13X0.25= $9699 is their gross margin… upon a potential 34K tonnes. Then we should purify the metal the conversion at a rate of 79% too (common)
This is 262.737M of potential in-situ gross value they could be withdrawing from Tungsten alone. Then another 39,672,000 from their copper (assuming 16000 tonnes and a gross margin of 25%) & another 61.11M from their silver extraction. Assuming current prices for both.
We’re up to a resource in itself of 363M lets say… now let’s add in all their other assets.
Second Tungsten Property
Historical sampling returned high-grade tungsten assays of 1.50 % and 0.94 % WO₃, plus elevated silver, molybdenum, zinc, and copper. The site benefits from substantial in-place infrastructure valued at approximately USD 17.89 million (historical 2003 appraisal)
The deposit includes at least 60,000 m of underground workings, spanning about 360 m vertically—though no formal tonnage or inferred resource is published
Some Napkin Math
- Assume: 2 million tonnes of inferred material at 1.2 % WO₃ (midpoint between 0.94–1.50 %, accounting for variation).
- WO₃ content: 2,000,000 t × 0.012 = 24,000 tonnes WO₃.
- Convert to tungsten: WO₃ contains ~79.8 % W.
- Contained W metal: ~24,000 t × 79.8 % ≈ 19,150 t of W.
- This time, let’s use a smaller conservative $30,000 per tonne instead
- Gross in-situ metal value: 19,150 t × USD 30,000 ≈ USD 574.5 million.
Applying a 20 % Net Margin
From gross metal value to net profit:
- 20 % net margin × USD 574.5 million ≈ USD 114.9 million in property value.
Projects:
Golconda Summit: Given prior gold trends and drill results (still shallow) to date, let’s assume they can land 1.5M gold ounces (given the trends are producing +5M). At current gold prices, that’s 5B in gold assets, at a 10% net margin after total expenses, it amounts to 500M. But there’s so much speculation and “wait and see here” so even if we assume their deposit is 150,000 ounces, than let’s add 50M in value to the equation.
Garfield Project: Has the potential to become a serious gold and copper project. They do owe a smelter royalty on it and a share option as well. Let’s assume it’s value sits at 25M (probably sold now wouldn’t receive that but there’s the potential of large gold deposits if they hold it)
The next two let's say if they sold them today they could receive 5M each.
From an asset perspective, we have 363M + 150M +17M infrastructure (conservative) + 50M (conservative) + 25M +10M = 625M/101M at the current trading price. ~525% return… which is exactly the performance that most antimony stocks have produced lately.
2nd Valuation Method
How has the market responded before?
Given the sensitivity of this market, it’s not enough to just have it produced, it’s critical to secure future possession of the metal. Interestingly, a couple months ago there has been a deal worth noting…
Almonty Industries (ASX: AII) has secured a strategic position in the global tungsten market through a binding three-year offtake agreement with US defense contractor Tungsten Parts Wyoming (TPW) and Israeli processor Metal Tech. This partnership represents a significant milestone as it establishes Almonty as a key upstream supplier in the critical minerals defense supply chain…The agreement includes a substantial commitment of 40 metric tons of tungsten oxide monthly—equivalent to approximately 480 annual metric tons or roughly 15% of annual US tungsten imports according to 2023 USGS Mineral Commodity Summary data
Did the stock move at all? Oh yea, big time
If we take the current market cap of this company in Canadian dollars, convert it to British Pounds and then examine it’s market cap against the current market cap of Guardian Resources we see an increase of:
7.89X or a 689% increase. This deal is 8X larger than the supposed tungsten resource of Guardian, so that’d be an expected 86%.
Valuation #3 News Oriented
As of 2013, research demonstrates that the release of feasibility reports moved the company 7.3%
For sake of calculation, let’s remain conservative that they won’t uncover some truly fantastic discoveries that can easily lend a 2-20X return from where we’re currently trading. Rather, given the seriousness of the tungsten matter, it seems to me that it’s security is more likely to encounter an M&A type situation. In that situation, research from BMO / PwC Mining Deal Reports demonstrates that while these premiums often show up gradually, companies that discover high-grade, economic deposits often get bought out at 3×–10× premiums over their pre-discovery valuations.
With a PFS, FS and DFS on this news alone (events) we should expect a cumulative 23.6% increase in the share price; but with a 5X premium M&A, this would create a colossal 400% return.
New Find: Core sample assay results returned upper limit of detection (overlimit) results for 20 Tungsten samples (>3,000ppm W) and 15 zinc results (>10,000ppm Zn), three silver results (>100g/t Ag), and one Lead result (>10,000ppm Pb).
Moving Fast: “Following the acquisition by direct claim staking of Pilot North, announced on 7 July 2025, an additional 42 Bureau of Land Management (“BLM”) Lode Claims have now been staked, significantly expanding the overall footprint of the Project and bringing the total number of BLM mining claims to 101, covering an area of ~2,086 acres”
We’re looking at an upside of 26% on the lower end to a 400% return on the higher end–but time is a crucial factor.
Disclaimer:
In each situation, net value of assets, market momentum and news anticipation & management activity is largely speculative and should not be considered an investment such as planting mango trees or a cash flowing, dividend-paying stock.
What I like vs. Other Critical Plays
- Lithium, Aluminum, Cobalt and others have their uses and investment-cases but the competition in the Tungsten space is far smaller. As of now, Gmet’s Pilot Mountain would represent the only primary domestic tungsten production within the U.S. The largest Tungsten deposit in the world sits in NorthWest Territories (battling seasons) and is less financially positioned to capitalize on it.
- I hold a macro-take that the war machine is more fundamental to the global economy than EV cars and solar panels. It’s higher stakes.
- Other positions have sound support and backing but the shares have exploded already on further anticipation and contract speculation; GMET has shown great performance but holds a very small beta now (in fact it’s becoming slightly cheaper as people take profits).
- GMET is unusually positioned because they have great alternative assets that themselves can be cash flowing machines or their sale can fund mine development of their main target, tungsten.
- Close to Reno for workers, assays and infrastructure; the project has been worked in the last 100 years by small-scale miners and changed hands since; lots of data to supplement drilling. Other tungsten deposits are remote or in foreign jurisdictions
Recent News
- US funding grant awarded, financing complete at minimal dilution: full steam ahead on both properties.
- Golden Metal Resources (USA) LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Guardian Metal on 23 July 2025 was awarded US$6.2M from the U.S. Department of Defense under Title III of the Defense Production Act of 1950. Crucially for you as an investor is that the investment is non-dilutive and carries no commercial covenants.
- From CEO: “…Recent executive orders from the Trump administration underscore a strategic push to reshore critical metal supply chains – particularly tungsten, given its importance to the defence sector and United States’ national security.”
- Finds from CEO: “While our main work continues to be centred on advancing the tungsten-copper-silver-zinc skarns, the results thus far from this porphyry- focused study increasingly point to a porphyry environment worth investigating further“
§ High-grade individual assay results up to 1.09% W0[3], 9.98% zinc (Zn), 337ppm silver (Ag), and 1.3% copper (Cu) with select highlight interval of 8.23m of 1.23 % WO[3]Eq or 4.26 % CuEq from PM25-045 nested within a broader 33.9m
continuously mineralised interval from that drillhole.
§ Initial Garnet Zone drilling analytical results are expected imminently with inaugural results released to the market
in the coming weeks.
Antagonist Side
Okay, these numbers are high, perhaps too high to speak of confidently. Let’s assume you’re of the position that this company will come and go with the hype. Sure, commodities do trade like this (look at lithium or nickel). However, scan over these questions:
- Are we in a gold bull market?
- Are they in a mining jurisdiction that’s worthwhile?
- Are they going to run out of money soon?
- Do they complete or full rights on the properties?
As I say, time will be necessary for the upside to be realized, but they’re positioned healthy.
Doug Casey’s 9P’s recap
People:
- Their board of directors hold a lot of direct mining experience, some with critical metals and taking a mining project to the next stages. As with their management team, they seem to be a very small and nimble team, and while I think this is normally a good sign to not drain shareholders, it may prove to be a problem in pushing the project to the next step and securing sizeable financing or contracts.
Something worth considering is the fact that they have had no employees working for them in 2024 as well. While all directors have a modest pay, the CEO & Chairman has more than doubled his total pay.
Property:
The property continues to show high grade finds of a mult-metal deposit. Even if we examine their other properties, they come up with silver and copper in their main gold deposit. The downside here, as already alluded to, is that they don’t exactly know the resource(s) that they’re holding at this given moment. All of their assets are located in mining-friendly Nevada.
Phinanzing:
As per above, they have 3M banked (as per last audited financial statement), they’re in the clear positive about 14M in assets, they’ve received financial support of 9M from shareholders and 6.2M from department of defense. H1 2024 net loss was only ~$1 million indicating a relatively low cash burn. Can their aggressive news raise shareholder equity, too?
Paper:
Directors’ interests: The beneficial interests of the Directors holding office at the end of 30 June 2024 in the issued share capital of the Company as of 30 June 2024 were as follows:
- D Ovadia 147,059 0.13%
- O Friesen 673,967 0.61%
- M Burnett 266,999 0.24%
- M Billing 446,909 0.41%
- J Starzecki – –
Total 1.39%
They also have approximately 10% of outstanding shares coming due in the form of warrants that are in the money right now. To me, this tells me that shareholders getting in will get diluted by at least this amount. This is not a good sign for someone interested in trading–and I’d be hoping for a slightly larger holding from strategic interests.
Valuation is speculative due to the lack of a PFS, non-public PEA and perhaps an outdated MRE; Calculating a P/NAV is not possible at this point–we can use this to our advantage
Promotion:
Guardian Resources’ promotional aspect seems to have really only appeared within the last 2 years under the focus of tungsten. Prior to that, it was very spotty appearances with respect to their gold deposits. Generally, it would appear that they never had much focus their way or budget to market. This could be a hindrance if you’re playing this as a news-oriented response by the market. This is something worth noting for the future.
Politics:
Politics is one of their extremely strong points and part of the special situation we see developing in Western countries. The supply of minerals is in a shortage as a result of political will and with the support for an accelerated PEA and expansive of properties; we see that politically this is a very strong play. You can view this in some sense that the downside risk is somewhat capped because, for political reasons, the United States cannot go without a healthy supply of domestic tungsten. Mining in Nevada is another benefit.
Push:
Like politics, GMET is strong on the potential upside with respect to new US government contracts being signed to facilitate mine development or exploration of their Tungsten properties. They are also currently (at the time of writing) evaluating assays from a recent drill program they had just completed. Tungsten price increases as supply constraints out of China and consumption continues to squeeze may also be another catalyst.
Pitfalls:
To unlock their high-grade gold, copper and silver assets to really explode the value of their entire company they will need to finance operations a great deal, which may require a lot of dilutive share offerings.
They have also had a few name changes within the last 7-8 years which makes me question their commitment or know-how on how to get all their assets up and running–but perhaps a new life has been felt by them with Tungsten.
The main pitfall I see is the lack of data, lack of studies and unclear next steps with the company. This company is certainly in the speculative category.
Price:
Does this company warrant a market cap of around 116M USD? I sought to justify it above; but without more concrete data and consistent cash flow, it’s difficult to size up in its entirity. I believe the price is not as attractive as it could be if you were thinking of a short term buy. It’s reassuring to see the capital has entered into the tungsten picture, but the upside is going to take some time.
Tungsten Competition
- I can’t find ATI’s mentioning of Tungsten in their filings
- American Tungsten Corp has low grade finds of Tungsten and from 1934-1982 they’ve produced only 1983 tons
- Kennametal is a manufacture of Tungsten (not producer)
- Sandvik acquired a Tungsten company but its not as far along as Guardian
Almonty is also a long-term competitor, but their supplies have been secured so the spill over in markets is not likely going to hurt Guardian.
It’s worth also noting that the largest Tungsten deposit in the world (by both grade and size) is in the Northwest Territories; subject to many Canadian regulations and subject to extreme weather patterns. They are also not as financially secure either.
Action Taken
A culmination of positive factors behind Guardian Resources puts this stock in the category of a Buy for me right now.
Notwithstanding the inherent mining risks, time delay through permitting, feasibility study process and the outstanding warrants, if we take an average of the following expectations, we should expect a significant stock move within the next 3-4 years.
As a risk/reward trade off, it appears that the risks of not bringing this into production is so high, which is to say that the risk of this company is so low, relative to the potential upside of return as outlined above; that this is a play I’m willing to take. The risk:reward ratio makes sense.
Crucially however, it’s important to realize that within extensive drilling, studies and financing to date this remains a speculative play and likely shouldn’t exceed 4-5% of your portfolio weighting. Another way to think of this is your “play on tungsten” amongst a large diversified portfolio of commodities. The thesis is driven by the special situation of a short supply in tungsten due to China’s banned exports on their monopoly coupled with an artificial political and economic demand for the metal.
This is a buy, but remains conditional on three main factors
- Further drill updates, news, contracts, and share price changes
- Not a short-term hold; the upside requires time to play out to become fully realized
- Not an investment; this is a longer-term speculation where someone is willing to take a large loss (-60%) for a 5X upside return and therefore should not constitute meaningful allocations in a portfolio.
