Could Mexico Ever Split Up as a Country?
I wanted to write this upon seeing the number of angry and vocal protests in the state of Oaxaca against foreigners. Many have called them for them to go home, to not use Airbnb, called them racists (?) and some outright threatened harm against foreigners. Some photo depictions even show murdering or “sacrificing” the foreigners who choose to stay. We, a long with many Mexicans apparently from Northerner states were quick to respond that their next protest will be about not having any money, any foreign investment or jobs anymore!
Southern Mexico has long been emblematic of the country’s developmental divide & severe social inequality. As a region, it has the highest poverty rates, the most severe infrastructure deficiencies, and the lowest educational outcomes in the country. Objectively, there is little motivation for residents to do anything since their integration into Mexico. Compared to the 43.6% national rate of poverty (taken by a 2016 consensus), a huge number of 72 per cent of the population from the Southern region lived in poverty. My guess is the numbers have only worsened, since.
Oaxaca particularly, thrives from having foreign investment and many foreigners move there with their pensions–however the locals are particularly upset about their recent success. A local Mexican I spoke with says that they are resentful either because they cannot find the jobs in services sector or they simply see people wealthier than them and their instinct is to repel them from their sight. Now everybody loses…
Who do Mexicans not like?
–Other Mexicans
This shouldn’t come as a surprise however. Oaxaca has been known for being one of the least developed area and never has established itself as being a universally functional, stable, place to reside. It is one of the Mexican states that has a majority indigenous population, a long with Guerrero and Chiapas (collectively known as The South). These living conditions & recent behaviour models the same that we see in Ecuador, Northern Chile, Peru, Bolivia and areas throughout Central America where the local indigenous decided after 400-500 years they don’t like the conquistador or extrañjero anymore. In fact, ethnically, the three most South states in Mexico have may have more in common with their neighbour Guatemala than their Northern countrymen in Sonora.
Moreover, it’s no surprise that these areas are unable to see the economic benefit & opportunities that foreign pockets bring to them. These places reliably perform the worst in all of Mexico in terms of economic output, employment, educational standards, cleanliness, noisiness and average net wealth (the same holds true to the respective LATAM countries already mentioned). Censuses reveal that approximately 22% of the state of Guerrero is illiterate with this touching 70-80% in some rural small towns. For the record, in my experience, in other states in Mexico they want more foreigners because that enables them more opportunities to earn income. Gringo pricing means more money, not less!
You can’t go to Chiapas without coming across people asking for money. This is what they do.They set up toll payments for everything. They’re in the business of thieving & begging. Look at who works and who decides to scheme. There are towns where all the children expect free candies from the public, ironically the absolute richest and the absolute poorest expect the same. One generation teaches the next how to live on the street & beg.
Who do you see on the side of the road in every city asking for money? People from the South. It’s 80% of the time. They always have young children who are even used as bargaining chips to get more money–they do the same for their children & the cycle repeats. And it’s not like there’s no work.There’s plenty of work, they just choose not to do anything productive… well, bueno, perhaps Mexicans will choose to stop giving them something for nothing someday.
Excerpt of a Mexican Interview
When Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) came to office there was a big question mark on whether he could change anything around with the South. And since the reign of Oaxacan strongman Porfirio Díaz ended in 1911, none of Mexico’s presidents has come from a southern state. Over 100 years and counting…
People in Central or Northern Mexico typically refer to the lower states as “the South” who highlight their difference in behaviour, culture, wealth, ethnicity, problems and even language. In fact, in the state of Chiapas only about half of the population speak Spanish–electing to choose their native language instead (of which there are thought to be 100s). Over 22% of the population in South Mexico don’t speak Spanish at all. No hablo.
Peligroso
Chiapas have in recent years formed their own indigenous cartel (Zapatistas) to fight against the influence of other larger Mexican cartels as well–which has largely destabilized the state (there’s no good guys and bad guys in this story). In fact, I was lucky when cancelling a trip down there at a time when these cartels took to the streets firing their guns in the air making demands of people.
They have become what they sought to destroy among the Chamula people that wields considerable power in Chiapas’ big city of San Cristóbal de las Casas and the central region of the state. The Chamula operatives not only control human smuggling and drug sales but a lion’s share of the informal commerce in the area. And they have sparked outrage for being involved in the production of pornography of indigenous women and underage girls. Hits and robberies on motorcycles are done by these local gang affiliates on the regular.
However, there are many resources, bananas, sugar, mangos derived from there–which means dinero. Dinero means cartel activity. There is a trifecta of cartel activity still ongoing between the Sinaloa Cartel, the New Generación and the Zapatistas groups, not to mention control over the Guatemala border which has become the ‘real’ US border since the Bidenistas took office.
I strongly suspect that these paramilitary conflicts are not over yet–the point stands… this region is becoming a liability for the Mexican government. Videos that Tweeted about show locals celebrating the arrival of Sinaloa Cartel to provide them security.
Farming, a little differently…
In the small Mexican village of La Esperanza located in the southwestern state of Guerrero, seasonal drought drives indigenous women to brawl for their deities & beliefs. Every May, women from across the region gather in the village to begin an annual ritual intended to usher in the rain before dry and humid summers. The ritual is simple; they do this by beating one another to a bloody pulp; the more violence, the more blood, the better. All able-bodied women of all ages are expected to participate–all for the idea that their blood sacrifice will appease the gods for a harvest.
We’re working on a heated article about special activity in Mexico in the Premium Service, don’t miss it.
The South’s towns don’t even resemble the rest of Mexico in terms of population. It’s estimated that around 40% of the towns/villages have a population of 2500 or less–a far cry from the populated advanced cities in the North. Perhaps this dynamic explains why only 2.5% of the foreign direct investment touched the South in the last 20 years–a critical time of Mexico’s growth. You can see this demonstrated in homicide statistics. From left to right you’re seeing Guerrero, Oaxaca, Chiapas & Veracruz to the north. Notice the small circles signifying the small towns (red means more violent).
Guerrero, Oaxaca and Chiapas by every metric & in conversation are commonly regarded to as “The South” of Mexico while the inclusion of the Yucatán Peninsula – which hosts the states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatán – is not universally accepted
For the first time as of 2023, more large corporations have been set up in Mexico as opposed to China; a growing trend in favour for the country. Anecdotally I can speak to the effect of more and more businesses setting up plants, warehouses or large branches in Mexico–but, they do so in the states seen in the middle of Mexico, Mexico City or in the Northern border states with the USA. This means more jobs, more spending, a larger economy for these states and absolutely none in the South–especially as they chase the retirees away with death threats. Of Mexico’s 100 largest firms, not a single one is headquartered in the South.
When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best
It’s unpleasant to say, but the majority of illegals entering the USA from Mexico do come from “The South” given their lack of opportunities, skills, education, wealth or connections. By contrast, if you have all of the aforementioned going for you, you’re not in any hurry to pay 10,000 to Narcos to illegally enter the USA. Of course, Americans who are upset with the mass immigration piercing their border by the hundreds of the thousands are quick to blame ‘all Mexicans’. Those in other states get roped into the societal blame and claim “it’s not us, it’s them”. Them, is an appropriate term because many in “the South” decline to this day, Mexican ways of life.
If we look at all the highlighted states in the above photo, approximately 1/4th of all Mexicans reside in these states. However, 40% of all poor reside here and a staggering 60% of the extreme poor live here (orange denoting a worse economic situation).
In other words, this gap always existed–but it’s being fuelled by economic differences between the North and the South. Guerrero (the state where the previously famous Acapulco lies) & Chiapas are far too dangerous to achieve an expat stronghold and Oaxaca just shot their own foot. Outside of bananas & mangos, what are they going to produce that the rest of the country cannot? They don’t even own the companies that own the farms in their own states!
Closing
The cultural, linguistic, behavioural differences between The South and the rest of the country have been well-known for many, many years and people have learned to live with it. However, given the surmounting economic divide between these states and the rest of the country, the cultural divides, the criminal proclivities, lack of political influence & obvious dissimilarities between the rest of the country, we propose that change may be in the air in some years time. Mexico is fundamentally changing as a country–unprecedented growth & change is happening as we speak–but not in the South.
If we solely consider the South’s lack of political, economic & business importance, it does pose the question whether these places are contributing to Mexico at all. While other poor states in the Yucatan peninsula exist, the reality is that an immense growth is ongoing right now over the Maya Train (touching many states), talks of an oil refinery in Tabasco, incredible resorts & yacht clubs in Tulum & consistent oil production in Campeche. All of which is good for the economy in these states but none of which involves the South.
Every 6 years (election cycle) there is pressure on the presidential candidates to “do something” about “the South” since they are not in a hurry to do anything themselves. Of course, we both know that government doesn’t do anything productive, let alone the bureaucrats in Mexico City–but at some point they will look at all the numbers and ponder the question, “what are these states even doing in Mexico?”
