Commodities & Guns are the Best Forms of Leverage
Much attention has been given to Africa and it’s recent military coup of their so-called democratically elected statesman. Mali & Burkino Faso have also seemed to have their own similar uprisings. Uprisings of this sort are not uncommon for the continent let alone West Africa, but they have been given a considerable amount of media attention and US commentary over the last months. [Now Former] US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland’s attempts to make contact with the leader of the coup, General Tchiani (who I may add is USA-trained and a former UN-peacekeeper) have fallen flat. USA & Western diplomats/ambassadors have been vocal regarding change in the air in Western Africa.
But why the hell is there such commotion over this? Sure Niger has uranium, but in the wise-words of the 45th President of the United States, Donald J. Trump, “It’s a shithole”. My guess is because there’s more going on than the almost yearly coup d’état. It’s because this is a poker game & Russia is also card player at this table.
Fifteen countries have an official presence of foreign country militaries, most of these bases are from USA, France, Belgium, Italy, Germany, UK, India and Japan. As per Nick Turse’s article in theintercept, leaked Pentagon papers have shown that as of 2020 the USA alone have 29 bases spanning from West to East Africa.
Last year Putin has offered to deepen relationships and released a statement towards “joining efforts for peace, progress and a successful future [with Africa]”. One method of this is he has guaranteed “free” grain supplies to a number of African nations who score high on food insecurity. On this matter, Putin went on to say, “I want to give assurances that our country is capable of replacing the usual Ukrainian grain on a free-of-charge basis, as we expect another record harvest this year” He continues that they will remain as providers of grain, fertilizers and other goods to further develop the spectrum of economic ties with Africa (42 of 54 African countries are net food importers). Russia says they have paid great attention to issues related to the supply of wheat, barley, maize and other crops throughout the continent. “We are ready to build pragmatic, mutually beneficial relations, including within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union” said Putin signalling that this relationship building extends beyond Moscow.
Curiously it goes beyond food with over 35,000 Russian students (6000 with state sponsored scholarships) are studying in Africa. Now what are 35,000 Russians doing studying in Africa? Do you think they’re all studying elephants & tribes or do you think some of them may have went for a more sly purpose?
A Dictators Nightmare
An African top-criminal President is worried about losing his throne. Rather than experience what went on in Sri Lanka (the presidents’ palace raided, the sports cars burned and the assets destroyed) they want to remain in power at the top of their corrupt food chain. One way to ensure this stability for their position is and always has been two things to keep the plebs satisfied; bread and circuses. Russia, as Putin has said, has the supply of bread they need.
I’m not sure about the circus (entertainment) aspect in the desert, but African countries have one serious problem… they don’t produce anything! Africa is almost entirely dependent on food imports for their country to live another day with some truly shocking data on this matter (Sign up using our discount to refer to our African articles).
So, if you’re the military general or dictator of that African country you can either lose everything, be dethroned, leave with your suitcase of 2M in cash in a helicopter to seek refuge in Switzerland or Dubai or you can remain king of the world by ensuring that your people are fed just enough to not revolt with your millions of embezzled money every month. The Russians know this situation. Their national game is chess after all. Look at Russia’s presence across Africa now.
So why does any of this matter?
Just to reiterate, Here is a chart someone has created outlining the number one resources by African country (this does not mean that there isn’t tremendously overlap of resources either). If you are particularly interested in the “green energy transition” take note:
- Guinea has the largest of the world’s bauxite resources (70%)
- Mali has 840,000 Tons of lithium resources
- Gabon is the 2nd largest producer of manganese and of course is a member of OPEC with over 2B proven barrels of oil
- DR Congo has over 70% of the world’s cobalt production
- South Africa has 90% of the world’s platinum group metal reserves (see my article here)
- Namibia is the 2nd largest exporter of uranium in the world
- Mozambique is the 3rd largest producer of graphite in the world
- Zimbabwe, known for platinum and diamonds is also the 3rd largest exporter of chromium ore in the world.
These are critical for a so-called “green energy” economy (which I believe to be a bluff) but just like Germany had gotten used to Russia’s natural gas supplies, they are also about to fall into the trap of purchasing battery minerals from them as well. Those who have energy and resources call the shots; the West have seemingly forgot this.
Also, people= production. The highest birth rates in the entire world stem from these countries. This is at a time where almost every developed country is below replacement (fertility rate of less than 2.1). If Russia were in need of people to run the machines so to speak (with their own population also declining) than this is the spot to get them.
Change in the Air
Western policy missteps, a growing anti-European sentiment and a fatigue for regional instability have all been occurring over the last few years–there’s only so much time one can tolerate their overlords. I could write a whole separate article, double-in-length about the problems but the point being is instability invariably always leads to polarizing times with radical figures. Examples of this worsening has been witnessed during the 2020 and 2021 coups in Mali, highlighting the failure of France to properly support, protect and stabilize the country. The exact same occurred in neighbour Burkina Faso where even before the coups the government only controlled 60% of its arbitrary territory. France ultimate has pulled all their troops from Mali and Burkina Faso earlier last year. UN & EU collectively or have 12 bases throughout the continent and have had these bases for over 10 years. We’re not talking a camp of 50-100 people either; six of these 12 bases have at least 73,000 personnel. Too many for comfort for the locals. The removal of these military personnel would be a massive change to the countries’ dynamics.
Gabon is the new country in the West African block to join the party. Recently their military has overthrown the government and plans to dissolve all state agencies. This has been after their leader, Ali Bongo, had won a third term in office after already holding office for 14 years. This is relevant to global markets as Gabon is the world’s eighth largest oil producing nation (an OPEC member with Russia). Altogether Gabon marks the eighth coup in former French colonies in just the last three years
It doesn’t help that the CFA Franc (the currency of 14 African countries) originate from Europe either. While colonial pasts have been enforced through muskets, ships & tanks, now they can be forced through banks. It’s a lot less “in your face” but Africans resent this currency as it reminds they are subservient to Paris. Perhaps a better trade off than the corrupt class pulling a Zimbabwe, though.
The Biden administration subsequently blocked these countries from US markets and ceased military training/assistance via their futile training facilities known as ECOWAS and MINUSMA (UN). The weaponizing of the dollar has almost forced them into Russian hands for financing.
The sentiment against France in particular has been strong. Look at some of these cartoons drawn in Africa. If you do not think this amounts to anything, let’s see how the Africans think of the Europeans (or at least the narrative that is circulating the continent).
But even if they were to rid the colonial countries, this doesn’t mean they’re going to be truly independent (especially with no dollar usage). They’re not looking to rule themselves, they’re just looking for a chance in their ruler. Let’s see the narrative towards Russians.
I remember speaking to an investor friend who said something to the tune of,
If you’re Russia, you don’t have the printing press, the propaganda machine or the largest reserves…but you have an ability to control/befriend the largest owners of minerals & energy assets in the world. What matters at the end of the day?
One aspect that could be heartfelt by Africans is Russia’s claim that they adhere to the principle of “African solutions to African problems”. It does seem that they have a far less presence and overt influence over their own affairs. In other words, it provides the illusion of prosperity & independence as opposed to the watchful Americans and French.
However, it does seem Russia is capitalizing on the worsening relationship between the Sahelian states, and their conquerers as well as food shortages.
Tying Together
So let’s sum this equation, you have one of the most capable fighting forces on the planet from a country that offers significant oil, gas, gold and wheat production (commodities that heavily dependent countries require) now covering territory on a continent that is the most untapped resource rich area in the world. These are potentially empire-level moves. If Russia can swap grain, gold or discrete mercenary support for Africa’s resources, they will have a tremendous control over global markets. At the current time, USA & their allies seem to be lost and reliant on a money printer & sanction writer.
Latest News
American troops have reportedly been ordered to be combat-ready as Russian forces arrived at their base in Niger, with the country telling the US to remove its forces from its territory. The Russians are currently using a separate hangar at the facility. Reports may be unfounded, as videos of Russians and Americans dancing in Niger have also circulated–but I hope to highlight this trend happening on the continent of ‘out with the old, in with the new!’
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