It All Rests On Milei

Fool Me Once…Fool Me Twice…

Argentina has managed to tank their currency, elect madmen, adopt insane policies & governmental departments, rape their treasury and completely turn their education system upside for decades. Despite having one of the most beautiful cities (the last European city), a relatively education population, knowledge of the most English amongst LATAM & one of the most resilient countries (to downturns), they just can’t seem to get on the right track. However, many have been hopeful that Javier Milei, who is a true anarcho-capitalist who doesn’t believe the state nor the central bank has a right to exist, is now in charge to turn things around.

It would seem, economically, with respect to trade, the budget and inflation rates–he has done just that–reverse course. Although, Milei has done or said a number of things that have caused people to remain skeptical of him. I’ve thought however, after talking with some–that the future of Argentina may truly rely on whether Milei can successful keep these gains intact–and proves his honest commitment to libertarian principles.

The Challenge

One way of breaking free from a tyrannical form of governance is the establishment of trust amongst the local population and for the majority of local citizens to understand how a tyranny operates. If the local population become united and strong together, the lies and scams have no impact anymore (have you wondered why gatherings during the Covid scam were not allowed??). Javier Milei, self-declared anarchocapitalist has been growing in his poll favouritism amid his radical reduction of government spending and using a ‘chainsaw’ to cut away the government agencies.

Despite these increases and obvious blowback from those determined to be unhappy, many (who otherwise would consider themselves anarcho capitalists as well) have remained critical of Javier Milei and his intentions to fully unleash the potential of Argentina. I myself, must acknowledge the recent successes but there is one critical thing that many are not realizing

Argentines haven’t become libertarians overnight

I haven’t seen any pro liberty ads, slogans or propaganda in Buenos Aires–the communists are still the loudest of the bunch. Though I haven’t heard anybody articulate the reasons for Milei’s philosophical beliefs–just that they are sick and tired of the crashing currency/economy.

Milei misteps:

Here are some missteps that I recall from the top of my head:

1. Utilizing Googles AI usage for new hires and government actions. Essential all citizens data go to Google from here on out.
2. Privatizing the economy by welcoming former top bankers and Wall Street executives (I’m writing a separate piece on this with respect to anarcho capitalism)
3. The Wailing Wall act. Scenes of him crying like a child at the Wailing Wall in Jerusalem, waving the Israeli flag & dancing with Jews. He aims to convert to Judaism as well.
4. Sending the gold abroad. He has sent a healthy percentage of the gold to London with the idea of earning some interest on it. Obviously, many speculate this was done to pay IMF or other debts and there’s a risk that you won’t get the gold back! 7% on 500M USD sucks if you lose the 500M.
5. Not changing taxes at all (see below). I cannot see tax changes to benefit the economy thus far.
6. Milei’s strange proposal to be a proxy of the United States and join NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) which serves no productive purpose for Argentina.
7. Being in Europe for many months
8. Allegations that he is a WEF member and simply playing a part.
9. Some are mentioning that his radical policies (whilst good) are a tactic to increase polarization and hence facilitate the need to bring in surveillance tactics. Some digital ID and facial scan technology is already being rolled out.
10. Lots of immigration from poorer, 3rd world countries continuing.
11. His cabinet has the same types of characters that had previously issued massive loans from the International Monetary Fund that had bankrupted the nation in years prior.

Child poverty in this country was around 50% before Milei and is probably higher now; I think he can change it but it’ll take time

University Student in Argentina

Boy who cried wolf

Similar to the story of the boy who cried wolf, I believe Argentina is running the risk of never getting back on track despite huge opportunity to do so. If Milei squanders the trust that is needed to overthrow the prior tyranny, then they will never be able to trust again. This is especially true because of the young population putting their faith in him–which is odd that the young population is eager for ‘less’ government.

Why The Young Voter Matters

I was extremely excited by the idea that young Argentines have fully adopted libertarian ideals put forward by Milei, but that may not be so. It seems they are less for libertarian values and more for radical change. Meaning, ideologically they are not necessarily committed to freedom, as they are for something radically different. It’s natural for a younger crowd to be rebellious and want to make all sorts of immediate changes (reflect upon when you were 25 and younger). If Milei either betrays the nation outright or completely behaves contrary to the values of libertarianism, I believe the young mind will associate libertarianism philosophy and lingo with fraud and lies. In other words, the failures will be misattributed to what you receive when you vote in libertarian values, when in reality it would be a result of bad policies or plans to completely sell out the nation.

The knee jerk reaction (and immediate crave for comfort) will be to reinstall somebody who can nationalize the industries once again and make sure that there’s more “free” money coming their way–starting the cycle over again.

Parliament elections are going to take place in 2025 and then in 2027 federal elections again.

Analogy

I believe that we can liken Argentina under Milei to be a call option. Reminder:

“Call options are financial contracts that give the buyer the right—but not the obligation—to buy a stock, bond, commodity, or other asset or instrument at a specified price within a specific period”

Call options provide a leveraged upside to the underlying asset in question for a fixed price. In this sense, the leveraged upside is a radical improvement in all economic, political, safety and overall functioning of the nation. An improve that otherwise would be organic–will be put in a time machine by fundamentally removing the source of the problem–the state.

The downside of course is limited (they continue to descend into becoming a 3rd world country like Venezuela); however, here I am arguing that Argentina is betting all of their capital on Milei. In some sense, it ‘has’ to work out because of the bad taste he will leave for the young voters who will wrongfully identify libertarian-values with corruption and fraud.

The older population are big-government communists, the young crowd are for Milei but if they reject the idea of libertarianism then there will be nobody left to adopt the free-market principles until another generation comes into being (which will be a small number given the low number of births in Argentina).

Can Argentina afford another 10-20 years of socialism?

Closing

To stick with the call option analogy, Argentina has taken the whole portfolio and is betting on the upside here. If it doesn’t work, there is nobody left to adopt the proper economic changes that Argentina needs. I believe people will fail to realize that it’s not anarchocapitalism that is the problem, rather, it could be that Milei has turned out to be a con-man as many have suspected.

As I said, I think the young crowd is eager for radical change but not necessarily radical commitment to freedom and liberty. If matters become worse, such as losing ownership of critical assets like companies, land, food supply, men (warfare) and gold, then they will feel that freedom and liberty is nothing but a big fat lie. They’ll revert back to old stupid habits which may be enough to finally degrade the country to have it nearly unrecognizable.

What do you think of this? Let me know, send me an email for a chat at [email protected]

#StayOnTheBall