Weekly Weigh In: Falkland Islands, IMF in Africa, Sharing Prior Posts
Milei Attacking Falkland Islands?
What is exactly going on here? Will Milei really try to seize these islands? It seems far more likely that this is a directive from their puppet masters in Israel and Washington who are concerned about Chinese presence around the Drake Passage for shipping routes, regarding Chinese fisherman in these waters–and of course the offshore oil that has been found. It seems that this may be a campaign to simply give attention to the announcement of increased presence in the region to squash Chinese exposure.
Interestingly enough, Chinese junk and garbage has washed up on the shores here in Uruguay as of late. As far as full-out invasion, it’s hard to imagine the small military of broke Argentina could or even would conquer the relatively barren islands of this British territory.
Of note, a friend of mine cleverly noted that Argentina has previously sent approximately 60% of its total gold holdings to London (over a dumb excuse of liquidity reasons). In any case, this is not a very smart move if you were primed to attack its wealthy territory only a couple years later.
My take? Aside that Milei being one of the most embarrassing clown Presidents in the world (yes, Trump included)… if Argentina were to lay legal claim to Malvinas there would be two instances behind it.
- Diplomatic handover… notwithstanding the annoyance of 2,800 islanders. Since UK is entirely collapsing and only a vassal of the United States now, their ability to flex their muscles is largely diminished–so them handing this over could be in their short term best interests for all those involved.
- Pure mayhem. If Argentina were to gain control of these waters, they’d have a new source of fuel to entertain any advancements of political disputes with commodity powerhouse Brazil, which would cause major problems for Uruguay, Paraguay and Chile… This would make the entire stable Southern Cone a destabilized region. I will post about this soon, however this seems like an exaggeration, seeing how his Jewish financiers have an interest in Buenos Aires and Patagonia to remain stable enough.
This is why the UK and Argentina, mediated by their US Big Brother and their Israeli parents setting the tone against China seems like a more plausible explanation as opposed to a new, expensive conflict brewing close to Antarctica.
Stay tuned to my new article on my thoughts on what explains the bad investment in the AI space (5 explanations).
New Official Shirt of the IMF
Senegal’s euro-denominated bonds rebounded on Wednesday after the country reached a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund for a massive $2.2 billion three-year financing package, offering some relief following a sharp sell-off in the previous session. This comes after a previous program frozen in 2024 occurred after an audit revealed underreported debt by the prior administration, which pushed public debt to an estimated 132% of GDP.
The continent of Africa is the IMF’s favorite set of customers— I previously covered how Ghana was red hot and then ice cold and the IMF came to bail them out for another few years with little promise of a rebound–every single country reliably screws up to accept more money from the IMF.
Just weeks before this, Guinea received $439 million (or $310 in SDRs) after IMF staff reached agreement on a 41-month Extended Credit Facility.
Guinea is entering a potentially transformative period because the enormous Simandou iron-ore project is moving into production–a sort of preemptive stabilization/reform program around a massive commodity boom–and I assure you it’s not out of the kindness of their hearts.
IMF credit facilities were also extended at Burkina Faso as it faces security crisis / jihadist insurgency, fiscal pressure (a terrible deficit), limited access to international capital and traditional markets. A terrible situation. So why exactly increase funding to this awful place? 4 letters.
Gold
Burkina Faso is a major gold producer, and the 2025 economic improvement was substantially helped by the gold sector. The IMF says real GDP grew 5.3% in 2025, with mining activity boosted by the international gold-price boom. According to reporting on the IMF review, gold exports increased by roughly 43%, helping push the current account into surplus–and where did the gold go exactly?
The continent is continuing to be cleaned out of its resources and the IMF have a brilliant operation going to do so. Whoever is saying they’re bullish on Africa is only doing so from a villa in Switzerland, an office of the Pentagon or D.C. or a CCP gov location in Beijing.
