A Game of Cards in the Middle East
I was just at the mall the other day and I’ve noticed a bunch of poker chips for sale–I was hit with a recollection of playing poker at my friend’s house. It was maybe my 2nd or 3rd time playing, so the hands and the terms were still new to me and my friends were quick players who frequently bluffed pots. One hand came to me where I thought I had a flush draw on the flop (first 3 cards). I knew this but didn’t know the probability of it so I bet very high. We were betting the River (4th card) and the Turn (5th card), with many players involved until the pot was the biggest of night.
My friend with the most amount of chips and the leverage over all of us bet high to scare off the rest of players and so that I’d only have a small percentage of chips left. My response if I called was to go all-in…shove all my chips into the middle of the table raising the pot even more and putting my friend, albeit the chip leader, in an uncomfortable position (as I would re-raise him yet again). I delayed, thought, counted chips, delayed some more, looked at the cards on the table carefully, delayed more… everyone at the table was stunned as to what I was going to do. My friend, the chip leader and an experienced poker player was all confused because of my behavior. He began to think and study my responses to prying questions. But he couldn’t figure out what I had.
“What could he possibly have where he is behaving like this? Was he bluffing me all along? Is he trying to win the pot from me? What type of hand makes someone play like this?”
It was a laugh riot and tense whether I was to call or not because of one simple fact:
that not even I knew I had a big fat hand of nothing BUT I had NO CLUE that I had nothing.
My hesitancy was not a planned, coordinated or strategic, it was pure ignorance–but it was enough to throw everybody off as to what I would do next.
How would they know… if I didn’t know!?
Fast Forward to Today
I believe that this is essentially Trump now with respect to Iran, Middle East, Israel How are we going to know what happens next when there is such a discrepancy between what is said & posited and the reality of the cards on the table (the military and economic situation in the East ).
It almost doesn’t matter if someone has leverage like my friend, it’s unnerving because of the unpredictability and confusion.
This rhetoric has been heard by Trump hundreds of times, something like: “I may take them over, I’d love to, I don’t need to, I probably won’t but we may, we will see” or “They’re defeated, they’ve already lost they’re decimated but they’ve proved effective, they’re a strong nation, great leadership but their leadership is wiped out, we’re winning but we will really win, soon, could be any day now” This is the equivalent of me “um’ing and ah’ing” over my hand of nothing.
We can see that something doesn’t add up…but what’s the missing piece exactly? This is what makes it so difficult to predict what is going to unfold (and what keeps me busy at On The Ball every day!).
Whether it’s the war, Congress spending, WallStreet, a collectivistic culture determined to destroy everything… it doesn’t seem like there’s a Captain to the ship–just as I was not governing my own thoughts wisely during this poker game.
Funnily enough, for you poker players out there, my hand “looked” like it could be something I remember but it ended up being 6-high (not very good) and truth be told I don’t know if I won the hand or not. I have a feeling there’s not many winners out of the conflict with Israel and Iran War. Most are going home empty handed. Notwithstanding this, follow my newsletter for geopolitical news, investment stock suggestions and macro. Sorry, not much poker advice.
Well that’s only part true… I did do an equity analysis to evaluate gambling during recessions (see below!)
#StayOnTheBall
